Polling Indicates Gov. Hogan would Face Backlash If He Doesn’t Support Minimum Wage

Democratic leaders in Maryland have been fighting to raise the state’s minimum wage to $15 by the year 2023. The increased wage would particularly benefit many of the state’s single mothers, low-income families, and small-business owners. To see how some Marylanders feel about the proposed minimum wage increase, GBA Strategies conducted a phone survey of 300 likely voters within the Maryland State Senate Districts 8, 28, and 38.

The districts that were polled are all considered swing districts. This is partially due to the fact that the districts generally support raising the minimum wage to $15 by the year 2023 while maintaining a high approval rating of Gov. Hogan, who continues to remain silent regarding his opinion towards the proposal.

Although the surveyed districts have some similarities, GMA Strategies noted that there are differences within the districts’ Demographic and political makeups. Two of the major differences are found in the residents’ political registration and identification. For example, District 28 remains the most densely-populated Democratic district as it maintains the highest number of residents in both Democratic registration and identification. District 28 also has the highest African-American population out of the three districts that were surveyed. Likewise, in District 8, many more residents are registered as Democrats than Republicans. However, the gap gets smaller when it comes to the residents’ identifications, but stays majority progressive. In contrast with the other two districts, District 38 remains a Republican district. The majority of the district’s residents identify and registered as Republicans.

Although the districts have some differences, there remained the notable similarity. All three of surveyed districts agree with Maryland’s Democratic leaders and showed a firm support for a minimum wage increase. This lead to the conclusion that there would be a little or no price for a candidate in supporting an increased minimum wage as even the most conservative of the districts showed support.

Furthermore, the survey took into account the effect of single-issue voting. Single-issue voting refers to the action of voters who base their voting decision on a single subject and give little or no attention towards other aspects a political candidate. The survey concluded that supporters of the minimum wage increase were about as likely to be single-issue voters as opponents in all the surveyed districts. Thus, single-issue voters on the subject of a minimum wage increase should have little effect on an election.

Although GBA Strategies reported that the overwhelming majority of the voters within the three districts have a positive opinion of Gov. Hogan’s work, the organization noted that Gov. Hogan could also face some backlash if he doesn’t back the proposed minimum wage increase.  In all three of the surveyed districts, voters showed they wanted Gov. Hogan to support an increased minimum wage. In fact, more voters agreed they would support Gov. Hogan in his reelection if he supports the minimum-wage increase than voters who said they would not. Even in the district with the most Republicans, District 38, 29% of those surveyed said that they would be less likely to support the current governor if he doesn’t support the increased minimum wage. Thus, this evidence shows that Gov. Hogan should take his stance soon and support Maryland’s Democratic leaders in creating a state with more economic equality.

Check out the polling memo HERE.